Consumer Confidence in Russia: From the Crisis of September 2024 to Positive in January 2025

The unexpectedly high level of the ROMIR Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in January 2025, which reached +10 points and is in the positive zone, is of considerable interest for analysis. This indicator is twice as high as the CCI value in January 2024 (+5), which indicates a significant improvement in consumer sentiment.

Considering the traditionally high expenses of Russians on the eve of and during the New Year holidays, such a positive result deserves special attention. It can be assumed that the long holiday weekend, special atmosphere and holiday mood had a positive impact on the formation of optimistic assessments of the future of Russians.
However, other factors that influenced the growth of the CCI cannot be ruled out. During 2024, despite the predominantly positive dynamics of the index, the Russian consumer demonstrated high sensitivity to changes in the economic situation.
Thus, in September 2024, the IPU reached a minimum value of +1 point, which was due to several factors, including repeated increases in the key rate and the cancellation of preferential mortgage programs.
In this context, the stabilization of the key rate by the Central Bank at the end of 2024 can be considered as one of the factors that contributed to the growth of the IPU in January 2025.
Thus, the positive dynamics of the IPU in January 2025 may be due to a combination of both psychological and macroeconomic factors.